A trusted source in the telecommunications industry tells me that Microsoft has been planning the acquisition of Nokia for over two years. According to my informant Redmond is waiting for the Finnish mobile phone provider to shed more of its market cap – currently sitting at around $22 billion – before tying things up.

I don’t believe it.

Firstly, Microsoft already has everything it needs from Nokia following the signing of an agreement between the two companies that opens various avenues of opportunity aside from Nokia licensing the Windows Phone operating system – which is the most significant part of the deal for Microsoft.

Secondly, Microsoft doesn’t do hardware unless it has to and can clearly differentiate – such as in the case of the Xbox and Kinect. It’s a software licensing company. You don’t make healthy margins from hardware unless your surname is Jobs. For everyone else it’s a tough volume game that I’m pretty sure Microsoft has no intention of playing.

But while we consider the marriage of these two technology giants, we were recently provided with a glimpse of what Nokia could’ve been sans Microsoft.

Windows Phone has been a failure to date. Its predecessor, Windows Mobile, had a pitiful market share in the smartphone arena, ending up with 5% last year according to Canalys. Since launching Windows Phone 7 Microsoft’s market share has actually deteriorated, falling to 3% in the first quarter of 2011.

Look at leading manufacturers’ operating system approaches and there is no question as to why Microsoft has fallen behind. Samsung and HTC are fully committed to Google’s Android operating system and their releases of Windows Phone devices have been little more than experimental. Microsoft is yet to win over handset vendors and it remains to be seen whether they ever will.

A source at one of the world’s largest handset manufacturers recently confirmed what I had suspected: nobody wanted the Windows Phone 7 device that their company launched in SA. Stock was returned by operators who could not dispose of it, while the company’s Android devices sold like hotcakes. The market has spoken.

Nokia will be the first manufacturer to go big on Windows Phone, but it remains to be seen if it can turn the tide for Microsoft.

And while Nokia prepares to enter the market with Microsoft onboard, the fruits of previous engagements are about to launch.

The Nokia N9 was announced in recent weeks running the MeeGo operating system that Nokia created in partnership with Intel. This was part of the strategy that the old Nokia regime put in place to regain relevance in the smartphone market. And it might have worked if their shareholders had given it a chance before displacing the CEO and alienating other key executives in the company like Anssi Vanjoki.

The N9 looks spectacular, although I haven’t had a chance to play with it yet. MeeGo seems to address all of the crippling issues that users had with the Symbian operating system. It also utilises the powerful services Nokia has built via its Ovi brands, such as Maps and Music Store. These services used to be differentiators for the company, but are now being tied into Windows Phone to the benefit of other manufacturers too.

Earlier this year I met with the new Nokia CEO, Stephen Elop, who explained that if Nokia was to be successful as a Windows Phone manufacturer it first had to work to improve and grow the Microsoft ecosystem. This makes perfect sense and I have faith in Elop’s strategy and ability to execute, even if I am skeptical of Microsoft’s mobile prospects.

But the N9 and MeeGo could’ve been the renaissance Nokia needed. The once fiercely contrarian Finnish company may well have clawed its way back to the top of the market without Microsoft.

Of course, now we’ll never know.

The N9 will soon have to compete with similar devices running Windows Phone, from the same manufacturer. Any success it does have will be weighed down by Nokia’s commitment to Microsoft. Marketing resources, etc. must be split. You won’t hear Intel’s take on this out in the open, but you can bet they’re fuming. The Nokia that Intel originally partnered with is no more, its attentions split and its strategy transformed – not necessarily a bad thing, depending on your perspective.

So while we wait to see whether or not Microsoft and Nokia can redefine themselves in a market obsessed with Apple and Google, let’s take a moment to consider what could’ve been.

Check out the promo video for the N9 below. I can’t wait to get my hands on it.

I have just finished a column for Fin24 on the performance of Microsoft since the dot-com bubble burst in 2000 and how its mobile strategy may elevate the stock for the first time in a decade. If you like numbers then look for the article on my columnist’s page. Here we’ll stick to why I think the mobile market needs Microsoft – but we need to look at some numbers.

The current status quo in mobile is represented by the pie chart attached to this post. It shows the market share of leading smartphone platforms in the second quarter  of 2010.

Nokia is still the market leader with its Symbian platform and ships more smartphones every day than any other manufacturer. Android is the fastest growing mobile platform and Research in Motion is losing ground with BlackBerry – although it is doing the right thing by opening up to developers. Apple is happily occupying 14% of the market and is making more revenue from that slice than Nokia does in its entirety.

Microsoft has a relatively tiny 5% of the market despite having one of the first “smartphone” platforms with Windows CE that presented itself as Pocket PC in 2000 and since rebranded to Windows Mobile and now Windows Phone.

Too many technology enthusiasts are dismissing Microsoft and writing off Windows Phone 7 before it is even available. I’m not suggesting that Microsoft is guaranteed success in the market, but I don’t believe you can write it off. And whether Windows Phone 7 makes it or breaks it, I believe it will introduce a healthy dynamic.

For one, it will offer a true convergence of Microsoft services, bringing together the Zune Marketplace for content, Xbox Live gaming division and Microsoft’s productivity offerings. This is a win if you use these services and holds promise for gaming. Xbox Live is launching in South Africa before the end of the year and I suspect Microsoft will unleash Zune in the local market soon too – especially if it wants to meet and beat Nokia that already has its Ovi services, including music store, up and running in SA.

Love or hate Microsoft most of the market uses its products and services and will welcome a mobile platform that integrates with these. We get caught in bubbles like universities or tech fraternities where Apple is ubiquitous, for example – but in the real world Microsoft still owns over 90% of the computer operating system market. It also has the second biggest gaming console brand and dominates productivity software.

The ecosystem play by Microsoft is going to force its competitors to think about how they integrate with customer’s existing environments. Not that they aren’t playing that game already – but they’re about to be schooled.

Nokia has maps and music. RIM has BlackBerry Enterprise Server and Messenger. Apple has the lion’s share of applications and content retailing. Microsoft has its Live services, including mapping, it has Exchange, Xbox, Zune with music and video – and the list goes on. We all know the market is currently about service integration and nobody has more to integrate than Microsoft.

The Redmond giant knows how to convert and retain developers and has more experience with third party supporters than any of the other mobile players. Windows Mobile was open to apps years before the app store was invented and allows for development in one of the most familiar environments in computing with its Microsoft Visual Basic CTP for WindowsPhone Developer Tools.

RIM recently opened up the BlackBerry platform to a rang of development environments, including a very competent take on web applications that plug into the BlackBerry API stack with WebWorks – it’s a great move and don’t doubt that it was, at least in part, prompted by the loom of Windows Phone.

The race is on like Donkey Kong when it comes to enticing developers. Apple has nothing to worry about in this department thanks to the ridonkulous revenues it has shown via iTunes. Microsoft has already cleared the biggest hurdle – getting them trained on the tools.

Mobile platforms are going to have to open up and innovate in the race for developers if they want to stay ahead of Microsoft and this is all good news for consumers.

Microsoft is going to get the competition on their toes and keep them there – hell, it’s already started doing this. It will take the fight for developers to a new level and will further educate the market in terms of smartphone usage models.

And it might fail. But I doubt it will. Even if it does – it will have an overwhelmingly positive effect before it fizzles out.

iPhone versus Windows Phone 7

For the past week I have been testing a 3D home entertainment setup in my lounge thanks to the guys at LG that sent me some equipment to combine with my own system. The picture above is of the wall in my lounge. Before we talk about the realities of 3D television, let’s take a look at the bits and pieces and their prices.

1. LG LX9500 47” LED LCD TV - This is the heart of the system: a beautiful 47″ monitor with 4 HDMI inputs that handles five different ways of producing 3D imagery. This is honestly the most ridiculously thin television I’ve ever seen and does a great job of rendering 1080p high definition visuals and, of course, 3D. More about that later. Price: R42000
2. LG AG-S100 3D glasses - The LX9500 television comes with two pairs of glasses and additional pairs can be bought separately. The glasses are charged using included USB cables and a micro USB port. A 2 hour charge and they’re good to go for at least a week of moderate viewing. Price: R1000 per pair.
3. Microsoft Xbox 360 - The Xbox 360 with HDMI port is 3D compatible, but older XBox 360 units without HDMI don’t cut the cheese. The only game I had to test with the Xbox is Avatar, which was provided by LG. The Korean company has allied with Microsoft for the development of 3D gaming. Price: R3000
4. Sony PS3 Slim - The Sony Playstation 3 is also 3D compatible, but I don’t have any 3D games to test it with. Time will bring them though. Price: R3300
5. LG BX580 Blu-ray player - LG’s latest model of Blu-ray player handles 3D and also has n-class wireless for accessing network media silos and online services like YouTube. That said, the n-class settings are curiously missing from the menu. It did produce the goods in 3D, however, with a disc of demo 3D footage provided by LG. Price: R3500
6. Sony HT-CT150 - This is a compact sound system that makes use of a speaker-bar and woofer to produce 3.1 sound. It also does a great job of playing 5.1 surround sound audio. Most importantly, it has 3D-passthrough for compatible devices. Price: R3000
7. Logitech Harmony 1100 - A universal remote is a must when you’re dealing with this many components. The 1100 is overpriced but does the job fantastically and is programmed via Logitech’s online Harmony service where just about every device known to man is catalogued. Price: R2500
8. Dude with a camera - That’s me. For 3D effects to work properly I need to be at least two meters away from the TV with powered-up glasses on my face. Price: Name it.

Now my only problem is that all I can watch in 3D is the demo Blu-ray disc that LG sent me to play with and the Avatar game for Xbox 360. But it is early days. If I was in the USA and signed up with a compatible pay-television company I’d be able to watch live sport in 3D on ESPN. Japan has also commenced live 3D broadcasts. In South Africa none of our pay-television providers have plans to do that just yet but we should have 3D movies on Blu-ray and console games arriving soon.

I am suitably impressed with the footage on the LG demo disc. High definition 3D is a fantastic experience although there is some noticeable blurriness here and there. The only real disappointment I’ve had is with the Avatar game for Xbox 360 which doesn’t look very good at all. The 3D works, but when you start running around in the game things get blurry and unplayable. It’s also a crap game. Definitely not a shining example of what the LG television can do.

It’ll be interesting comparing 3D gaming on Xbox and PS3 in future. PC gaming is also entering the fray with 3D monitors now making their way into the market and technology from Nvidia that even converts existing titles into 3D.

3D is a nice to have, but it’s not indispensable and I would wait for prices to come down before investing in a compatible HD TV. That said, this is one of the most fantastic monitors I’ve seen and if I could I would definitely keep it attached to my wall. As I continue to use it I’ll post more reviews in the various publications I write for, and on Twitter.

Shuttleworth is a South African philanthropist and internet entrepreneur who started the company Thawte in 1995 and went on to sell it to Verisign at the turn of the century in a US$575 million deal. He then became the second ever self-funded civilian astronaut traveling to the international space station as a member of the Soyuz TM-34/TM-33 missions. Upon his return to earth Mark formed the Shuttleworth Foundation and Canonical.

Simon Dingle recently authored a chapter on Mark Shuttleworth for the book South Africa’s Greatest Entrepreneurs. The publication will be available in September 2010.

Use the audio player above to stream the interview or click here to download the mp3 file.

Making the announcement at the massive E3 gaming conference and expo currently underway in Los Angeles, Mirosoft said that the service is set to launch in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Greece,  Hungary, Poland, Russia and South Africa.

Said Marc Whitten, general manager of Xbox Live for Microsoft,“This expansion is another step toward our vision for Live – to deliver the entertainment you want, shared with the people you care about, wherever you are in the world.”

The service will be available in the USA summer, which means it should come online in South Africa within the next three months, and definitely by the end of September.

Microsoft said that Xbox Live in South Africa will focus first on delivering core gaming and community features including matchmaking, friends list, achievements, Gamerscore, a tailored Games Marketplace and other features, with content like movies and music being excluded at launch, but on the cards for addition later on.

Yvette van Rooyen, product and marketing manager for Xbox 360 in South Africa added that, “Xbox fans in South Africa will now be able play the best games in the industry with 23 million other Xbox Live users across the world who have made this their online gaming destination of choice. “

Given the long wait for Xbox Live it is likely that most South African Xbox users will have already created international accounts by lying about their location and will be loathe to switch to a South African account because they will lose all their stored information in the service. This will keep numbers down, I predict, while making it look like regions such as the USA and UK have unrealistically high numbers, as is the case with, for example, the Apple iPad which claims 2 million sales in the USA in under 60 days while I’m willing to bet that half those sales ended up elsewhere in the world (heck, I bought two).

I have been an Xbox Live Gold subscriber for some time and have compared the service to Sony Playstation Network (PSN). In my opinion there is no competition really, Microsoft’s service is streets ahead of Sony’s – but the latter gets all the credit for betting on South Africa first.

Microsoft had a slew of announcements at E3 2010, including unveiling its Project Natal accessory which will go to market as Microsoft Kinect and a new version of the Xbox 360 called the ‘Slim’ that will retail in the USA for $299.

Microsoft has unveiled a new Xbox 360 accessory called ‘Kinect’ that was previously known as Project Natal. Unveiled at the annual E3 gaming conference currently underway in Los Angeles, the Kinect enables controller-free gaming for the Microsoft console. Demos of the accessory included fighting, driving, dancing and other games all controlled by player’s actions without controllers. Checkout the video above for a taste of Kinect in action.

The device can also be used to control media playback on the Xbox 360 by just waving your fingers around in the air, which looks pretty sweet.

I personally like lying on the couch in a semi-vegitative state while gaming, but the Kinect is certainly the most impressive piece of console technology to hit the scene of late.

Kinect will be available worldwide from November 2010.

In the Web 2.0 echo-chamber  bad ideas spread fast. This time nodal sparks came from web celebs like entrepreneur Jason Calacanis and online broadcasting demigod Leo Laporte – both of which I have the utmost respect for, and both of which are proponents of the anti-Facebook movement.

I also respectively believe they’re taking things too far.

Calacanis is known for jumping to conclusions and he’s been wrong before. A great example of this was his Twitter attack on the New York Times’ David Pogue for daring to publish books on products from companies he writes about in the ‘Times. He attacked Pogue’s integrity and my opinion that he was wrong in doing so isn’t just an assertion – but listen to Pogue defend himself in TWiT episode 213 and decide for yourself.

Calacanis is clearly a principled guy who feels strongly about things. I’m the same and have made bad calls on that basis before too, so it would be hypocrisy for me to criticise him too harshly. But I believe he’s wrong about Facebook.

That Zuckerberg is an awkward kid with a track record of doucheness is undoubtable. He has been presented as such from all quarters and even the movie about the birth and rise of Facebook apparently casts him as ruthless and untrustworthy, amongst other things.

But so what? I’ve met some hard hitters in the tech space, including CEOs of large companies, and I can assure you that being ruthless is a common trait amongst almost all of them. Being untrustworthy, on the other hand, is a common trait with young men in general and Zuckerberg was very young indeed when he allegedly knifed business partners in the back. Raise your hand if you went through your teens without doing anything stupid… I didn’t think so.

If you’re going to quit Facebook because its leader is an arrogant know-it-all with weird preoccupations and because the company isn’t in full adoption of the open approach to privacy and technology in general then I would tender that you should be selling all your Apple products, deleting Windows off your PC and getting rid of all your gaming consoles. No more Kindle books, and you should probably sift through Google’s user agreements too. And good luck finding a mobile phone and network to use it on.

The fact is that Facebook is a great and useful service irrespective of its CEO being a douchebag (which may or may not be true). The privacy thing also isn’t as big a deal as some will tell you.

I’ve always been very wary of online privacy and have implemented advanced controls on my Facebook account since it was possible to do so. I have groups of users and I control who can see what. For example, I don’t let anyone except really close friends and family see most of the pictures and videos of my kids. Those settings have persisted and Facebook hasn’t changed them. My account is still as secure as it was this time last year.

The problem Facebook has is that it does privacy too well. It allows for advanced control of your personal content and I’m yet to see another service come close in terms of the granularity it allows. As with any feature in technology, if you don’t apply these controls then it’s you that has the problem, not Facebook. The user is still in control of what the public gets and what stays private in terms of specified user groups and networks.

Because it does this better than most, people expect Facebook to shine at privacy. They don’t care that Twitter is completely open because it’s always been that way, unless you have a locked account.

I am not suggesting that Facebook is faultless, however. The company certainly has played hard and fast with the information of people who do not lock down their information and accept the default settings. It also clearly plans to leverage its situation to make money. But I’m not sure those are malicious actions. God forbid anyone makes a profit, right?

My suggestion is that everyone takes a deep breath and calms down. Facebook is no more or less evil than any other company trying to drive a profit. We could pick out individuals from any organisation and form opinions of the company as a whole based on that one person – but this is shortsighted and infantile as far as I’m concerned. Zuckerberg is the baby and Facebook is the bathwater. Let’s not throw them both out – even if Mark has been peeing in the bath.

There are way more people involved in the creation and running of the company than just the CEO.

I’m all for open software and networks. I believe the guys over at the Diaspora project are on the right track with their plans for a “privacy aware, personally controlled, do-it-all distributed open source social network” and I can’t wait to see the fruits of their effort and funding. But for now Facebook is still a useful tool to me. I have no privacy concerns because I’ve taken the time to set things up properly. I don’t approve of everything the company does, but I could say the same for all the other providers whose products I use on a daily basis including Twitter, Sony, Apple, etcetera.

And, it bears repeating: if you accept the default settings then you can’t complain too loudly when they change. Lock it down like I did.

I had an enlightening discussion with science fiction author and digital rights activist Cory Doctorow in Croatia in 2008 where we discussed his abandonment of the Mac, amongst other things. Cory, who has a tattoo of a Mac on his right bicep, found himself at odds with Apple as a company in recent years and switched to Linux. I asked Cory how he was enjoying Ubuntu Linux, which he runs on a Lenovo laptop.

“I’m extremely impressed with Ubuntu,” he said. “But less impressed with Lenovo as a company.”

The problem? Lenovo’s user agreement for their laptops. The reality is that if you look at most technology companies closely enough you’ll find something to disapprove of. Sometimes you just need to consolidate that in terms of the advantages offered by the technology itself. Cory still uses Lenovo products. And I still use Facebook.

And no, I won’t be deleting my account today. Spare me the hype. I’d go so far as to say that most of the people who have been swept up in the anti-Facebook togetherness are ignorant as to exactly what it is they’re protesting.

But, if you do want to get rid of your Facebook account, check out Seppukoo – a service that aids you in your virtual suicide. And ra-ra for taking a stand.

In the enterprise space cloud is less remarkable than its most vehement proponents would have you believe. The IBMs and Microsofts of the world have established metrics, case studies and methodologies for how it’s done. And, as IBM CEO Sam Palmisano said in a meeting with press at Armonk, New York Yesterday – this cloud stuff is “nothing new”. He’s seen it all before. In the consumer space things are different, however, and here I include small business.

In that arena cloud is pitched as a vital next-level computing paradigm. And so it is. Google, Microsoft and Apple are all being challenged by the consumer market for cloud solutions that enable a distributed personal computing model where online is everything and individuals rely on multiple devices that need to be kept in sync.

Google is perhaps most favourably positioned in terms of this new paradigm. In its arsenal it has… well, the Internet. Everything Google does is intrinsically online. Orchestrating cloud services for its technologies is a natural progression more than a challenge.

For Microsoft and Apple, however, distributed meshes in personal computing are contrary to the centralised approach they inherited from a previous era.

Before we continue, we must separate Microsoft in terms of enterprise and consumer markets. We’re talking about the Microsoft that is pushing Windows Live and Office Live services here – not the Microsoft that developed Azure. To make the point again: the challenges and principles are different for corporates – we’re dealing with personal computing in the consumer sense here where a distributed typography underpins the trend.

While Google was born online, Microsoft has made great inroads in moving into the cloud. The laggard here is Apple – but I get the feeling it is about to take a giant leap forward.

MobileMe was part of Apple’s first play with cloud services, along with iWork.com. As is the typical Apple approach Steve Jobs and co. started with simple services that are slowly being ramped up. Apple never goes all out at the get-go.

Jobs clearly has big plans. In recent months Apple has been ramping up its server infrastructure. A new data centre for the company is being rolled out in North Carolina to supplement its existing site in Newark, CA. With an east-coast centre online Apple will apparently add five times more capacity at a cost of about a billion dollars. Either Jobs thinks that MobileMe is going to grow substantially, or Apple is planning something big and new in the cloud space.

Speculation is rife as to what this could be. Recent acquisitions suggest that an iTunes streaming service is on the way – something that would allow you to store your media libraries in the cloud and access them from anywhere. This seems logical, but I get the feeling there is more to it.

Services like Dropbox and Google’s pending Gdisk are making amazing things possible in terms of online storage, while companies like Carbonite are taking online backup to the masses. My prediction is that Jobs intends to take MobileMe, which already includes iDisk, and turn it into Apple’s “hard drive in the sky” complete with Time Machine backup and a range of services building on iWork.com, Mail and its other existing offerings.

With Apple’s developer conference around the corner iPhone fixation has once again hit the market – but I would pay careful attention to Jobs’ “and one more thing” when he presents his keynote because I think it is likely he will announce additions to Apple’s cloud offering. It just makes sense to include MobileMe with every Mac, including a cloud hard drive for media and other file storage and backup. Apple needs to do something now as Microsoft and Google continue to plod ahead in terms of cloud services and third-parties fill in the gaps.

The recent launch of Ubuntu Linux 10.04 also introduced Ubuntu One, which is Canonical’s first romp into cloud services that includes online storage and a music store with cloud media services. In the next few months and years we are going to see Ubuntu rising to challenge what Google, Microsoft and Apple are doing in the space and I’m inclined to think that Jobs’ strategy will more closely resemble Ubuntu’s than anyone else’s.

I have become a highly demanding gamer. New titles have five minutes in which to grab me. If the intro montage is too long or the gameplay anything less than spectacular, they’ve lost me. Gone are the days where I had hours to spend in front of a console after school or between classes. What I need now is short, potent doses of escapism, delivered without prelude, so I can get back to work.

Alan Wake is one of the few titles in the last year that gripped me from the get-go and kept me glued for longer than the gameplay tutorial. And that isn’t because it delivered on premise, but rather because it didn’t. What I was promised was an action thriller from the creators of Max Payne with a clever gameplay gimmick involving light. With bad memories of the flashlight in Doom 3, I was immediately skeptical of the light-bit. The title also seemed a bit lame, tying the lead character to the storyline a bit too literally.

What I got was an intriguing storyline with robust gameplay and gorgeous graphics. Elements that, on their own, would not hold up – but combined to keep me interested and wanting more after the first play.

Alan Wake is not “scary”. The zombie-like foes one faces in the game are about as frightening as a stumble in the dark. There is little suspense or believable danger – but the psychological element that underpins the story is compelling and this is part of why I like this game so much.

You are Alan Wake, a famous writer who is escaping to an island on a lake in the country with your partner Alice for a much needed break. But everything goes pear-shaped when your dream-states start merging with the real world. People and objects referred to as ‘The taken’ are after you. Some of them are characters from your books, others are people from the local community of Bright Falls.

It’s not the most ingenious of story-lines but in the world of video games is about as intelligent as they get. There are also absorbing little additions to the story – such as references to old-school scuba diving in the murky waters around the island – that keep the intrigue going.

Alan Wake also breaks the mold of immersive storytelling in games that all too often happens at the expense of gameplay – which was one of the reasons I didn’t like Heavy Rain much.

Then there’s the gameplay. This is a third-person shooter, with a twist. The Taken are pretty unstoppable in the dark, but shed some light on the matter (sorry, couldn’t resist) and it impedes them allowing you more time to take them down with a gun. You can use a torch to slow down or knock back your enemies and a flare gun can be used to spectacularly blow away groups of Taken.

Whereas this approach to gameplay could’ve turned out to be more annoying than anything else, in practice it just works. The only improvement I would’ve added is some form of targetting system, ala GTA.

Another effective gameplay element is that you can dodge axe-swings and the like which leads to a brief, slow-motion cinematic sequence that is highly satisfying.

This is undoubtedly one of the most intelligent video games I’ve played and a coup for Microsoft in that it is exclusive to the Xbox 360.  It remains to be seen how long it will manage to keep me intrigued, but for now Bright Falls will be a preferred destination for my brief spurts of escapism.