Is there still hope for BlackBerry? Can Lenovo make a dent in the tablet market? We don’t know the answers to these questions, but are willing to speculate wildly. This week Andy Hadfield, Simon Dingle and Steven Ambrose discuss the Lenovo K1 tablet, Samsung pulling the Tab 7.7 from its stand at IFA, the Amazon tablet, app stores and operators, iOS 5, the launch of Telkom Business Mobile, Evernote acquiring Skitch, Google shutting down old projects, and more…

A trusted source in the telecommunications industry tells me that Microsoft has been planning the acquisition of Nokia for over two years. According to my informant Redmond is waiting for the Finnish mobile phone provider to shed more of its market cap – currently sitting at around $22 billion – before tying things up.

I don’t believe it.

Firstly, Microsoft already has everything it needs from Nokia following the signing of an agreement between the two companies that opens various avenues of opportunity aside from Nokia licensing the Windows Phone operating system – which is the most significant part of the deal for Microsoft.

Secondly, Microsoft doesn’t do hardware unless it has to and can clearly differentiate – such as in the case of the Xbox and Kinect. It’s a software licensing company. You don’t make healthy margins from hardware unless your surname is Jobs. For everyone else it’s a tough volume game that I’m pretty sure Microsoft has no intention of playing.

But while we consider the marriage of these two technology giants, we were recently provided with a glimpse of what Nokia could’ve been sans Microsoft.

Windows Phone has been a failure to date. Its predecessor, Windows Mobile, had a pitiful market share in the smartphone arena, ending up with 5% last year according to Canalys. Since launching Windows Phone 7 Microsoft’s market share has actually deteriorated, falling to 3% in the first quarter of 2011.

Look at leading manufacturers’ operating system approaches and there is no question as to why Microsoft has fallen behind. Samsung and HTC are fully committed to Google’s Android operating system and their releases of Windows Phone devices have been little more than experimental. Microsoft is yet to win over handset vendors and it remains to be seen whether they ever will.

A source at one of the world’s largest handset manufacturers recently confirmed what I had suspected: nobody wanted the Windows Phone 7 device that their company launched in SA. Stock was returned by operators who could not dispose of it, while the company’s Android devices sold like hotcakes. The market has spoken.

Nokia will be the first manufacturer to go big on Windows Phone, but it remains to be seen if it can turn the tide for Microsoft.

And while Nokia prepares to enter the market with Microsoft onboard, the fruits of previous engagements are about to launch.

The Nokia N9 was announced in recent weeks running the MeeGo operating system that Nokia created in partnership with Intel. This was part of the strategy that the old Nokia regime put in place to regain relevance in the smartphone market. And it might have worked if their shareholders had given it a chance before displacing the CEO and alienating other key executives in the company like Anssi Vanjoki.

The N9 looks spectacular, although I haven’t had a chance to play with it yet. MeeGo seems to address all of the crippling issues that users had with the Symbian operating system. It also utilises the powerful services Nokia has built via its Ovi brands, such as Maps and Music Store. These services used to be differentiators for the company, but are now being tied into Windows Phone to the benefit of other manufacturers too.

Earlier this year I met with the new Nokia CEO, Stephen Elop, who explained that if Nokia was to be successful as a Windows Phone manufacturer it first had to work to improve and grow the Microsoft ecosystem. This makes perfect sense and I have faith in Elop’s strategy and ability to execute, even if I am skeptical of Microsoft’s mobile prospects.

But the N9 and MeeGo could’ve been the renaissance Nokia needed. The once fiercely contrarian Finnish company may well have clawed its way back to the top of the market without Microsoft.

Of course, now we’ll never know.

The N9 will soon have to compete with similar devices running Windows Phone, from the same manufacturer. Any success it does have will be weighed down by Nokia’s commitment to Microsoft. Marketing resources, etc. must be split. You won’t hear Intel’s take on this out in the open, but you can bet they’re fuming. The Nokia that Intel originally partnered with is no more, its attentions split and its strategy transformed – not necessarily a bad thing, depending on your perspective.

So while we wait to see whether or not Microsoft and Nokia can redefine themselves in a market obsessed with Apple and Google, let’s take a moment to consider what could’ve been.

Check out the promo video for the N9 below. I can’t wait to get my hands on it.

I have just finished a column for Fin24 on the performance of Microsoft since the dot-com bubble burst in 2000 and how its mobile strategy may elevate the stock for the first time in a decade. If you like numbers then look for the article on my columnist’s page. Here we’ll stick to why I think the mobile market needs Microsoft – but we need to look at some numbers.

The current status quo in mobile is represented by the pie chart attached to this post. It shows the market share of leading smartphone platforms in the second quarter  of 2010.

Nokia is still the market leader with its Symbian platform and ships more smartphones every day than any other manufacturer. Android is the fastest growing mobile platform and Research in Motion is losing ground with BlackBerry – although it is doing the right thing by opening up to developers. Apple is happily occupying 14% of the market and is making more revenue from that slice than Nokia does in its entirety.

Microsoft has a relatively tiny 5% of the market despite having one of the first “smartphone” platforms with Windows CE that presented itself as Pocket PC in 2000 and since rebranded to Windows Mobile and now Windows Phone.

Too many technology enthusiasts are dismissing Microsoft and writing off Windows Phone 7 before it is even available. I’m not suggesting that Microsoft is guaranteed success in the market, but I don’t believe you can write it off. And whether Windows Phone 7 makes it or breaks it, I believe it will introduce a healthy dynamic.

For one, it will offer a true convergence of Microsoft services, bringing together the Zune Marketplace for content, Xbox Live gaming division and Microsoft’s productivity offerings. This is a win if you use these services and holds promise for gaming. Xbox Live is launching in South Africa before the end of the year and I suspect Microsoft will unleash Zune in the local market soon too – especially if it wants to meet and beat Nokia that already has its Ovi services, including music store, up and running in SA.

Love or hate Microsoft most of the market uses its products and services and will welcome a mobile platform that integrates with these. We get caught in bubbles like universities or tech fraternities where Apple is ubiquitous, for example – but in the real world Microsoft still owns over 90% of the computer operating system market. It also has the second biggest gaming console brand and dominates productivity software.

The ecosystem play by Microsoft is going to force its competitors to think about how they integrate with customer’s existing environments. Not that they aren’t playing that game already – but they’re about to be schooled.

Nokia has maps and music. RIM has BlackBerry Enterprise Server and Messenger. Apple has the lion’s share of applications and content retailing. Microsoft has its Live services, including mapping, it has Exchange, Xbox, Zune with music and video – and the list goes on. We all know the market is currently about service integration and nobody has more to integrate than Microsoft.

The Redmond giant knows how to convert and retain developers and has more experience with third party supporters than any of the other mobile players. Windows Mobile was open to apps years before the app store was invented and allows for development in one of the most familiar environments in computing with its Microsoft Visual Basic CTP for WindowsPhone Developer Tools.

RIM recently opened up the BlackBerry platform to a rang of development environments, including a very competent take on web applications that plug into the BlackBerry API stack with WebWorks – it’s a great move and don’t doubt that it was, at least in part, prompted by the loom of Windows Phone.

The race is on like Donkey Kong when it comes to enticing developers. Apple has nothing to worry about in this department thanks to the ridonkulous revenues it has shown via iTunes. Microsoft has already cleared the biggest hurdle – getting them trained on the tools.

Mobile platforms are going to have to open up and innovate in the race for developers if they want to stay ahead of Microsoft and this is all good news for consumers.

Microsoft is going to get the competition on their toes and keep them there – hell, it’s already started doing this. It will take the fight for developers to a new level and will further educate the market in terms of smartphone usage models.

And it might fail. But I doubt it will. Even if it does – it will have an overwhelmingly positive effect before it fizzles out.

iPhone versus Windows Phone 7

Shuttleworth is a South African philanthropist and internet entrepreneur who started the company Thawte in 1995 and went on to sell it to Verisign at the turn of the century in a US$575 million deal. He then became the second ever self-funded civilian astronaut traveling to the international space station as a member of the Soyuz TM-34/TM-33 missions. Upon his return to earth Mark formed the Shuttleworth Foundation and Canonical.

Simon Dingle recently authored a chapter on Mark Shuttleworth for the book South Africa’s Greatest Entrepreneurs. The publication will be available in September 2010.

Use the audio player above to stream the interview or click here to download the mp3 file.

“Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) has unveiled plans to offer an augmented reality platform and software development kit (SDK) to enable a new generation of vision-based augmented reality applications.  Initially available for Android devices, Qualcomm’s augmented reality platform will enable developers to build applications that merge reality and cyberspace.  The SDK will be made available at no charge to developers for use in the development and distribution of commercial applications.

Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ: MAT), a worldwide leader of toys and family products, is one of the first consumer products companies embracing augmented reality and has used Qualcomm’s SDK to bring the classic Rock ’Em Sock ’Em® game to life in a whole new way.  Additionally, Qualcomm has collaborated with leading game engine developer Unity Technologies to include support for Qualcomm’s augmented reality platform as an add-on to Unity for Android, providing developers with a rich development environment for augmented reality applications.

Augmented reality allows computer-generated content to be superimposed over a live camera view of the real world.  The concept has seen growing interest among developers for its potential to create applications that are more intuitive and interactive.  While many current augmented reality applications rely on a compass and GPS, Qualcomm’s SDK is based on world-class computer vision technology recently acquired from Imagination Computer Services GmbH.  Vision-based augmented reality provides a greatly enhanced user experience by allowing computer graphics to be tightly aligned with real world objects.  It enables developers to build games, extend print and TV media with interactive 3D content, and create educational applications that bridge the digital and real worlds.

“Augmented reality represents a quantum leap in the mobile experience,” said Matt Grob, senior vice president of engineering and head of corporate research and development at Qualcomm.  “By offering a no-charge SDK with state-of-the-art image detection and tracking technology, we help developers create the new generation of applications that are richer and more compelling than anything seen on the market today.”

Mattel’s Rock ’Em Sock ’Em game has captivated children and adults alike for decades.  Mattel’s proof-of-concept Rock ’Em Sock ’Em game using augmented reality technology extends traditional play into the mobile environment, making it even more relevant to a new generation of technology-savvy consumers.

“Qualcomm’s technology has the potential to make augmented reality much more accessible for the consumer,” said Peter Marx, vice president of production and technology at Mattel.  “We are always looking for technology solutions that complement and extend physical toys into new engaging experiences that are relevant to today’s kids — this technology is ideal for this purpose.”

Unity Technologies is the provider of the market-leading Unity development platform for highly interactive 3D content on mobile devices.  Unity provides a rich, integrated environment that enables game developers to focus on game content and game play instead of complicated low-level functionality.  By adding Qualcomm’s augmented reality platform to Unity for Android, new and existing Unity developers will be able to quickly and easily create augmented reality games for Android.

“Augmented reality adds a dash of magic to reality, creates new ways of interacting with the physical world and enables access to extremely valuable data in a natural way,” said David Helgason, CEO of Unity Technologies.  “Qualcomm’s augmented reality platform will unleash our users’ creativity to create new and exciting forms of real-world entertainment.”

A beta version of the SDK will be available to developers this fall.  Additional information is available on Qualcomm’s developer portal at www.qdevnet.com/ar.”

In the enterprise space cloud is less remarkable than its most vehement proponents would have you believe. The IBMs and Microsofts of the world have established metrics, case studies and methodologies for how it’s done. And, as IBM CEO Sam Palmisano said in a meeting with press at Armonk, New York Yesterday – this cloud stuff is “nothing new”. He’s seen it all before. In the consumer space things are different, however, and here I include small business.

In that arena cloud is pitched as a vital next-level computing paradigm. And so it is. Google, Microsoft and Apple are all being challenged by the consumer market for cloud solutions that enable a distributed personal computing model where online is everything and individuals rely on multiple devices that need to be kept in sync.

Google is perhaps most favourably positioned in terms of this new paradigm. In its arsenal it has… well, the Internet. Everything Google does is intrinsically online. Orchestrating cloud services for its technologies is a natural progression more than a challenge.

For Microsoft and Apple, however, distributed meshes in personal computing are contrary to the centralised approach they inherited from a previous era.

Before we continue, we must separate Microsoft in terms of enterprise and consumer markets. We’re talking about the Microsoft that is pushing Windows Live and Office Live services here – not the Microsoft that developed Azure. To make the point again: the challenges and principles are different for corporates – we’re dealing with personal computing in the consumer sense here where a distributed typography underpins the trend.

While Google was born online, Microsoft has made great inroads in moving into the cloud. The laggard here is Apple – but I get the feeling it is about to take a giant leap forward.

MobileMe was part of Apple’s first play with cloud services, along with iWork.com. As is the typical Apple approach Steve Jobs and co. started with simple services that are slowly being ramped up. Apple never goes all out at the get-go.

Jobs clearly has big plans. In recent months Apple has been ramping up its server infrastructure. A new data centre for the company is being rolled out in North Carolina to supplement its existing site in Newark, CA. With an east-coast centre online Apple will apparently add five times more capacity at a cost of about a billion dollars. Either Jobs thinks that MobileMe is going to grow substantially, or Apple is planning something big and new in the cloud space.

Speculation is rife as to what this could be. Recent acquisitions suggest that an iTunes streaming service is on the way – something that would allow you to store your media libraries in the cloud and access them from anywhere. This seems logical, but I get the feeling there is more to it.

Services like Dropbox and Google’s pending Gdisk are making amazing things possible in terms of online storage, while companies like Carbonite are taking online backup to the masses. My prediction is that Jobs intends to take MobileMe, which already includes iDisk, and turn it into Apple’s “hard drive in the sky” complete with Time Machine backup and a range of services building on iWork.com, Mail and its other existing offerings.

With Apple’s developer conference around the corner iPhone fixation has once again hit the market – but I would pay careful attention to Jobs’ “and one more thing” when he presents his keynote because I think it is likely he will announce additions to Apple’s cloud offering. It just makes sense to include MobileMe with every Mac, including a cloud hard drive for media and other file storage and backup. Apple needs to do something now as Microsoft and Google continue to plod ahead in terms of cloud services and third-parties fill in the gaps.

The recent launch of Ubuntu Linux 10.04 also introduced Ubuntu One, which is Canonical’s first romp into cloud services that includes online storage and a music store with cloud media services. In the next few months and years we are going to see Ubuntu rising to challenge what Google, Microsoft and Apple are doing in the space and I’m inclined to think that Jobs’ strategy will more closely resemble Ubuntu’s than anyone else’s.

Nokia says that their Messaging service is easy to set-up and use with push e-mail services that support up to ten personal e-mail accounts on one device.

Nokia Messaging supports all leading consumer e-mail solutions including Gmail, Windows Live, Hotmail and Yahoo! mail as well as local email services from MWEB, MTN Play and Webmail.

Says Sarah Crowe, head of marketing at Nokia South Africa, “The Nokia Messaging Service is the consumer pillar in Nokia’s overall messaging strategy … also includes Ovi Mail for free emerging e-mail services and Mail for Exchange and IBM Lotus Traveler for corporate e-mail mobilisation. This three-pronged approach positions Nokia well to provide quality messaging solutions to all of our consumers”.

Sounds good – but I don’t see how it plans to compete with other mobile platforms that offer much of the same for free, or as part of a service agreement, ala BlackBerry. There also isn’t much incentive to upgrade from the free beta to the paid-for service. And if you’re on another network, say Vodacom or Cell C, then you can continue to use the beta.

As for ease-of-use and partnering with local email providers – setting up email on a BlackBerry, iPhone or Android device is already a simply process of inserting your username and password. It doesn’t get simpler than that, surely?

As part of its agreement with MTN, Nokia will be offering the Messenger service as a bundle on the Nokia E63 combined with a 10MB data plan. The E63 is pretty sweet, although its S60 operating system is getting seriously long in the tooth. And 10MB? In 2010? Seriously?

The Nokia E63 Messaging bundle will be available at participating MTN stores from the end of April 2010 at an approximate retail price of R119 per month on MTN AnyTime 100.

Nokia has shown strong prospects in the smartphone market with the N900 and the move to make Ovi Maps an entirely free service. I also think the agreement with Intel to co-develope the MeeGo platform is a step in the right direction.

But the Nokia Messenger announcement is underwhelming.

For, like, R20 more than the MTN deal you could get the BlackBerry 8520 on contract, with unlimited connectivity (which is quite a bit more than 10MB), including messaging and simple set-up.

Even at the low-end of the market this service and, more so, the contract from MTN makes no sense. Unless I’m missing something?

The UK press are smoking something serious when they publish kak about machete gangs roaming the streets of South Africa. But an epic fight is about to break out all over the country – albeit a virtual representation thereof.

Legends of Echo is a new location-based mobile game developed by the guys at The Grid (a Vodacom subsidiary). It combines massively multiplayer online gaming with location-based services and runs exclusively on mobile phones.

The game is set in the world of Echo, which you could think of as another dimension. The online world has the same basic geography as South Africa and is loaded with real locations all around the country. Your character in the game travels around Echo either by teleporting to locations or as you travel around with your mobile phone.

You can then fight, exchange items or hang out with other characters, build your own virtual home in Echo, create and sell items, go on quests and other stuff.

Says the official launch release, “Echo is a parallel virtual universe based on the South African map. Instead of cities and skyscrapers, however, players will find rolling green fields, rocky outcrops and valleys to explore and establish their base.”

“The Echo is entirely populated by players of the game, as well as their bases. Real-world place names are still used to navigate, e.g. a player can teleport from Belville in Cape Town to Randburg in Johannesburg to battle another player.”

“The objective of the game is to become a legend of the Echo (i.e. gain enough Legend Points to appear on the high score sheet). To do this, players need to battle other players, obtain advanced weapons and other items by exploration or trade with other players.”

“The game is unique in that it mirrors real-life locations in a multiplayer environment. Interaction is always location-bound i.e. a player is battling a player in close physical proximity to him/herself.”

More details are available on the Legends of Echo website.

Legends of Echo can be played from any cellular network – although you’ll want to be in SA while playing since the game is at it’s best when you combine it with actual location. To play SMS ‘ECHO’ to 33313 (50c/SMS) or visit http://www.legendsofecho.mobi/ on your phone.

In terms of devices, Legends of Echo is currently available to S60 Symbian phones – so no BlackBerry, iPhone or Android. Yet. But it will run on most Nokia, Sony Ericsson and other Java-enabled devices.

Vincent Maher and Nic Haralambous are the clever f**kers behind Legends of Echo and I’ve invited them to (tech)5 on 5FM this Thursday to come and tell us more – so listen out for it just after 14:00.

The Desire is comparable to the Nexus One, which is manufactured by HTC and sold by Google. There are still no plans to launch the Nexus One in SA, but the Desire is a practically identical phone with the same 3.7″ AMOLED capacitive touchscreen, 5 megapixel camera and, most importantly, Android 2.1 operating system that you’ll find on the Nexus One.

The only real difference between the two is that the Nexus One is a quad-band device that supports WCDMA and associated American network frequencies, while the Desire is a dual-band GSM (with HSDPA) handset. The Desire also beats the Nexus One for battery life, apparently.

The Legend is a smaller smartphone with a slower processor (600MHz compared to 1GHz on the Desire). It also runs Android 2.1 and HTC’s Sense user interface.

It is uncertain at this stage what the new HTC devices will cost in South Africa or which networks will carry them – but since Vodafone carries both the Desire and Legend in the UK I think it’s safe to say that Vodacom will have both available on contract.

HTC faces legal charges from rival Apple who has accused the former of patent-infringement. Analysts have predicted that HTC will have to place new products on the back-burner until the dispute is settled. The Desire and Legend are firm competitors for Apple’s iPhone, which continues to dominate the touchscreen smartphone market.

And now a new Australian company called Misa Digital has put Linux to work in a digital guitar it has developed. The instrument is powered by Gentoo Linux and uses a touchpad and buttons instead of strings. The result is pretty amazing, as you can see from the video below.

Misa isn’t shipping the guitar just yet, but pre-orders are available from the Misa Digital website. Rocking.